What is a hung parliament? When no political party has more than the half of the MP in the House of Commons then we have a hung parliament. No party has the majority to govern the next term. The total number today is 650, so a party needs at least half plus one to have a majority: 326 MP’s
Why this does not happen often in UK? The last time UK has a hung parliament was in 1974. UK has an archaic democratic system. It is called First Past the Post (FPTP) which allows for the two big parties to get more MP elected. If you are in a constituency where there is a majority in favour of one candidate your vote is useless. So the system produces strong governments. It could be well the case that the total percentage of vote won by the government in charge is below 45% and still they have the power for imposing sweeping reforms.
What would happen with a hung parliament? The party with the largest majority does not automatically form a government, so it has to negotiate to get a majority the 326 MP’s. The largest majority can still form a government that is called a minority government which usually last until the other parties bring it down. Parties can form a coalition government which altogether makes at least 326 MP’s. If nothing happens or a government is brought down with no other coalition forming then there is a need to call a fresh election.
What is going on right now? Currently the LibDem are negotiating with the Conservative Party to form a stable coalition government with a majority 363 MP’s
Would we have Conservative/LibDem Alliance? In general all parties share a lot in common in regard to neo-liberal economical and foreign policy. The War is not a dividing issue and the cuts in the welfare state, public sector, schools, pensions and tax increases are not a dividing issue. The amount spent on the war in Afghanistan is about £4 billion and none of the leaders said anything about this during the election campaign. Whatever party or alliance that will be in charge in the government is expected to impose larger cuts to manage the current deficit. However, there are a lot of differences between those two parties that, if thought rationally, it would be unlikely to have an alliance.
What are those differences with the Conservative party? To start with is the electoral reform; the LibDems have always been the losers in this two-party system. Right now they have 57 MP, but their share of the votes is 23% which in a more representative system will give them 0.23*650=150 MP. A big difference!! There are other differences, the LibDems are more European centrist, they would like to scrap Trident, they propose less taxation for those earning less than £11K per year, they proposed to abolish the student fees, to legalize immigration, changes in the capital gains taxation that will be increased and considered as an income tax (capital gains are income coming from shares, securities house sales and other properties). Some of these proposals appeal to young people, particularly the electoral reform proposal, and consequently their share of the vote increased in this election (although the total number of MP has been reduced). Much of these are not shared by the Conservative Party.
Is it likely an alliance between Labour and LibDem? Yes it is possible; in reality they share more points in common with the Labour than the Conservative Party. The key point on the Labour/LibDem Alliance would be the electoral reform, and other issues could be negotiable. They probably have an historic opportunity to reform the electoral system and the Labour Party is willing to take this path.
Why don’t they go straight to talk with the Labour Party? They are talking with the Labour Party too. They have some key issues like Gordon Brown image, they would also need to involve other parties(Scottish nationalist, Welsh nationalist, Irish MP) to get to the magic number 326. The extension of the alliance makes it difficult to get all issues sorted out. On top of this there is a big pressure from the right wing media, the corporate bodies, Wall Street and their own internal right wing sector, to get a deal with the Conservative Party.
What are the risks for the LibDem on their choice? For now the Labour Party has offered them a clear path for the electoral reform. If they do not get it with the Conservative Party they risk having a diminished influence on later elections. If the Conservative Party offer them an agreement on the electoral reform they would also risk the image of a progressive party within the young and the left of the LibDem. The least politically risky path for the LibDem is to form an Alliance with the Labour Party.
What about us? In these difficult times people did not buy what all the political parties were saying and the total share of the vote against the Conservative Party is larger than they expected. It is safely to say that more than the 52% of the people in England are against the comeback of the Conservative Party. Most of them would respire a little bit safely if a Labour/LibDem alliance would be in place. How long it will last nobody knows. A lot of people would also be happy with a fair democratic system and a change in the unelected House of Lords. People in England are facing the worst recession in years with more job losses coming from any new government. None of the parties are offering an alternative to the neo-liberal polices neither to the War in Afghanistan. None of the parties are doing the connection between the £4billions spent on the war, the lack of resources here and the current deficit. For millions it is back to basic, defence of their jobs and against cuts, no more wars: Only the people can defend the people.
posted by Mota
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